Bitcoin Holds Key $110K Support as November Rally Hinges on Whale Accumulation and ETF Inflows

Bitcoin’s price hovered near $110,000 in early November 2025, testing the psychological and technical floor that traders now treat as a lifeline — not just a number, but a battleground. After a wild October that saw the cryptocurrency surge to a record $126,295 before crashing to $102,329, the market entered a tense consolidation phase. The move wasn’t random. It was a breath held by institutional investors, retail traders, and AI-driven models alike, waiting to see if the $110,000 level would hold — or if the entire rally would collapse under its own weight.

From $400K Fantasy to $250K Reality

It was AI analyst Grok who first ignited the $400,000 fever dream on X (formerly Twitter) in late October. By November 1, he had quietly walked it back. "I was overly optimistic," he admitted. His revised projection? A year-end range of $250,000 to $300,000. That’s still astronomical, but it’s grounded in reality. Grok’s recalibration wasn’t just a personal mea culpa — it reflected a broader market shift. The euphoria of Q3’s ETF-driven surge had given way to sober analysis. The $110,000 price tag wasn’t a failure. It was a correction.

The $110K Tightrope: Support, Supply, and Sentiment

By November 3, Pintu News in Jakarta reported Bitcoin was consolidating above $113,500, with resistance stubbornly parked at $115,750. But the real story was below. The Jakarta-based firm’s Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap revealed a dense cluster of supply — meaning a ton of traders bought at $117,000 and are now sitting on losses, waiting to sell. That’s the pressure zone. Meanwhile, support was stacking up like sandbags: $113,500, then $111,000, then the critical $108,500 line. Cross that, and panic could set in.

Then came the rebound. On November 18, retroactively reported by CoinStats.app, Bitcoin had climbed to $115,196 — a 12% surge from its October low. Crucially, it had crossed above its 200-day Exponential Moving Average for the first time since June. That’s not just technical jargon. It’s a signal. When the long-term trend line turns upward again, it often means the market is regaining confidence. Whales, according to Blockchain News, were quietly accumulating. Transaction volumes were rising. Wallet activity was spiking. This wasn’t retail FOMO. This was institutional patience.

"Uptober" and the November Effect

October 2025 was a rollercoaster. Bitcoin’s all-time high of $126,295 came on October 2. By October 8, it had plunged nearly 19%. That’s the definition of volatility. But here’s the twist: historically, November has been Bitcoin’s best month. CryptoRank’s data showed an average 40.5% gain in November over the past five years, with a median of 10%. That’s not luck. It’s a pattern. Holiday season liquidity, year-end portfolio rebalancing, and tax-loss harvesting tailwinds all converge. Traders call it "Jackpot Month." And this year, the conditions were ripe.

"Global trade tensions, inflation, and recession fears are affecting all risk assets — including Bitcoin," said an unnamed analyst, "Lin," cited by Pintu News. "But if support above $110,000 holds, we could see a 10 to 20% rise — $120,000 to $140,000 by month-end. Especially if ETF inflows remain strong and whales continue to accumulate quietly."

What’s Next? The $130K and $150K Thresholds

Analysts aren’t just watching $110,000. They’re watching the next gates. The first real resistance? $117,261. Then $120,000 — where profit-takers will swarm. Break through those, and the path opens to $130,000, then $145,000. CoinStats.app flagged $150,000 as a possible target if momentum surges past $120,000. But here’s the catch: that’s only possible if Bitcoin doesn’t just hold $110,000 — it needs to break $117,000 with volume. Otherwise, it’s just another false breakout.

The clock is ticking. November 10 saw Bitcoin dip to $105,228 — a near 10% drop in hours. But by 9:49 AM IST on November 11, it had recovered to $106,239. That’s resilience. That’s discipline. That’s a market learning to breathe.

The Bigger Picture: Bitcoin as a Macro Hedge

This isn’t just about crypto. It’s about trust. As central banks keep rates elevated and geopolitical risks mount, Bitcoin is increasingly seen as a digital safe haven — not a speculative toy. The fact that institutional capital is flowing into BTC ETFs, even amid volatility, suggests a structural shift. The $110,000 level isn’t just a chart point. It’s a test of whether Bitcoin can survive in a world of high interest rates and economic uncertainty. So far, it’s passing.